News You Can Use

Edition 32 · 15th - 31st Dec 2025

News You Can Use

Deep Dives

Three stories worth sitting with

One Useful Thing: The Shape of AI Jaggedness

One Useful Thing: The Shape of AI Jaggedness

What
Revisiting the 'jagged frontier' argument for AI. Stating that AI's progress is uneven - with some capabilities far ahead and others lagging. Even as AI becomes superhuman on complex tasks like reasoning or reading large datasets, it still struggles with simpler but critical aspects like memory, edge-case handling, or interacting with the real world. Mollick explains that AI's overall ability frontier remains jagged, meaning AI will complement humans for the foreseeable future; and that breakthroughs happen not continuously, but when specific bottlenecks are overcome.
So what
This perspective helps temper expectations about what AI can reliably do in practice. It reinforces the idea that AI will augment legal work by accelerating parts of tasks where it excels, but will still require human intervention where it struggles (e.g., retaining context over long matters or handling unusual/rare exceptions). When evaluating and deploying AI tools, whether internal pilots or client solutions, we should focus on where AI boosts productivity most and understand the limitations that will persist until key bottlenecks are addressed. Just because AI can do one thing well, does not necessarily mean it will do other things of the same 'complexity' as seen by humans.

Harshith Viswanath: AI-Driven Legal Due Diligence

Harshith Viswanath: AI-Driven Legal Due Diligence

What
This article highlights how AI tools are transforming traditional legal due diligence. With M&A deal value rising sharply, due diligence has historically been expensive and slow, often costing 0.5-2% of deal value and taking weeks or months. AI-powered platforms can now scan documents, extract key clauses, flag risks, and surface inconsistencies much faster than humans, helping teams complete reviews in days rather than weeks. The core shift is that AI handles the first-pass review, while lawyers focus on judgement, negotiation, and deal strategy.
So what
This is a good example of AI delivering real efficiency gains in a well-defined legal workflow, rather than just generic productivity uplift. It reinforces where AI makes the most sense today: high-volume, time-critical exercises where speed and consistency matter, and where lawyers' time is better spent advising on risk rather than extracting data. It also sets a useful benchmark when evaluating tools - the question is whether it meaningfully reduces turnaround time, cost, or pressure on teams during live deals. We are already seeing some of our Private Equity clients investing in automated DD and self-serving these projects.

The Red Line: Why Can't $43B in Legal AI Investment Fix the Billable Hour?

The Red Line: Why Can't $43B in Legal AI Investment Fix the Billable Hour?

What
The author argues that venture incentives prioritise rapid valuation growth and distribution over truly robust legal products - many legal AI offerings end up resembling repackaged general-purpose models with little real differentiation. Lawyers' need for high reliability, perfect formatting, data security and deep domain trust makes legal AI a tough nut for VC-backed startups to crack.
So what
This helps explain the current market dynamics: even with heavy investment, legal AI solutions struggle to convince lawyers they are reliable enough for daily use. This means we should be cautious about equating funding buzz with product quality. When assessing tools for internal or client use, we should prioritise trustworthiness, accuracy, and workflow fit over hype or headline valuations - and clearly communicate where products truly add value versus where they rebrand generic capabilities. It also matches up with our frustration in the market, distribution is more important for VC than the development which means the products end up being too shallow in areas we need more in depth capabilities.

Worth Reading

Everything else worth a click

Wordsmith.ai: Legal AI Trends 2026

A forward-looking analysis of the shift from "copilots" to fully autonomous agentic workflows. Read this to understand the predicted move towards systems that execute complex, multi-step legal tasks rather than just assisting with drafting.

Law.com: Next-Generation Training Models

Leading firms are replacing traditional "learning by osmosis" with AI-driven simulations and bootcamps. Essential reading for L&D leaders: as AI automates the grunt work junior lawyers used to learn from, firms must intentionally engineer new ways to build legal judgment.

Benedict Evans: AI Eats the World (Presentation)

Evans' latest deck argues we are leaving the "hype" phase for the "deployment" phase, where the gap between capability and adoption becomes visible. Worth reviewing for the data on the massive capex spend versus the still-nascent revenue models.

Harshith Viswanath: AI-Driven Legal Due Diligence

A deep dive into how "predictive due diligence" is transforming M&A from a reactive risk check into a strategic deal driver. Read this to see how agents are beginning to model post-closing risks and integration challenges rather than just flagging clauses.

One Useful Thing: The Shape of AI Jaggedness

Ethan Mollick revisits the "jagged frontier," explaining why AI excels at some hard tasks but fails at easy ones due to context bottlenecks. A crucial framework for identifying which parts of your workflow are safe to automate and which will break.

The Leverage: 2025 is Winding Down, Nuclear is Blowing Up

A breakdown of the "nuclear renaissance" driven by AI's insatiable energy demands. It offers a fascinating look at the physical infrastructure constraints that will define the speed of AI scaling - data centres need power, and nuclear is the only scalable baseload solution.

Tim Dettmers: Why AGI Will Not Happen

A grounded technical argument that "superintelligence" is impossible due to physical resource constraints and diminishing returns. Read this for a sobering counter-narrative to the "exponential growth" religion, suggesting we hit a hardware wall sooner than expected.

The Spectator: AI Will Kill All the Lawyers

A provocative piece arguing that clients will inevitably bypass expensive human lawyers for "good enough" AI tools. While hyperbolic, it captures the "competence shock" and commoditisation pressure that pricing leaders need to be prepared to answer.

2025 LDO Survey Report (PDF)

The 18th annual survey reveals 58% of legal ops pros are under C-suite pressure to deploy GenAI, yet only 32% can show cost savings. Worth reading for the data on "insourcing," with 94% of teams planning to bring more work in-house using AI capabilities.

273 Ventures: How to Design an AI Agent (PDF)

This book chapter moves beyond buzzwords to engineering, defining agents as architecture (Triggers, Intent, Perception, Action). Essential for builders, it explains the "reliability cliff" - why agents fail on long tasks - and how to design "escalation pathways" for when they do.

LegalTechnology.com: 2026 Predictions

Forecasts that 2026 will be the year of "mandatory adoption," where AI becomes a standard requirement for panel spots. The key takeaway is the shift from "custom" models to "integrated" AI embedded directly into daily tools like Outlook and Word.

a16z: Big Ideas 2026 (Part 1)

Focuses on the "Agentic Interface," predicting a shift from software designed for human clicks to APIs designed for agent-to-agent negotiation. Read this to understand the backend infrastructure required when your AI needs to talk to the court's AI.

a16z: Big Ideas 2026 (Part 2)

Argues that AI will "refactor" industries by turning services into software products. The "service-as-software" thesis suggests entire categories of billable work will be replaced by flat-fee, outcome-based subscriptions.

The "Final Boss" of Deep Learning

Discusses "Categorical Deep Learning" and the push for "Large Causal Models" to fix the reasoning flaws in current LLMs. This is the frontier research attempting to solve the "hallucination" and logic gaps that limit AI in high-stakes legal work.

Vaill's View: AI Use Cases Vol 3

A practical collection of what is actually working now, moving beyond "drafting emails" to high-value workflows. Great resource for ops teams looking for immediate, low-hanging fruit to prove ROI.

WSJ: Meta Buys AI Startup Manus

Meta's $2B+ acquisition signals a major bet on "agentic" capabilities for the masses. It suggests tech giants are moving to commoditise the agent layer, putting pressure on vertical-specific startups to prove their specialized value.

(S2 E10) The Fast and The Curious

Latest Further Comments episode - thoughts on knowledge extraction, access to legal data and taxonomies and the challenge of AI Adoption in law firms. Are we focusing on the wrong metrics? Will clients be building things themselves? Discussions of vibe coding, direct in-house self serve, legal data and specific knowledge as a moat.